:Product: 19980123RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 023 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. REGION 8143 (S35E60)
PRODUCED SEVERAL SMALL B-CLASS SUBFLARES. THIS REGION GREW AT A SLOW
PACE. A SMALL REGION ROTATED AROUND THE EAST LIMB NEAR N12E65 AND
WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION 8144.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE PREDOMINANTLY
VERY LOW. REGION 8143 IS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED SMALL C-CLASS
FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  A SMALL GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED ON 24-25 JAN. GENERALLY, UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST. ISOLATED MINOR STORM PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT
INTERVAL. QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR ON 26 JAN.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 JAN-26 JAN
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 JAN 097
PREDICTED   24 JAN-26 JAN  100/102/103
90 DAY MEAN        23 JAN 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 JAN  005/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 JAN-26 JAN  012/010-012/012-008/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 JAN-26 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/15
MINOR STORM           20/20/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/15
MINOR STORM           25/25/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/01