:Product: 19980124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 024 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINED VERY LOW. NO OPTICAL FLARES
WERE REPORTED. MINOR GROWTH OCCURRED IN REGIONS 8142 (S21W20) AND
8143 (S34E47). NEW REGIONS 8145 (N30E59) AND 8146 (N15E62) WERE
NUMBERED. BOTH WERE SMALL AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8143 APPEARS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING C-CLASS
SUBFLARES, ESPECIALLY IF CURRENT GROWTH CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  A SMALL GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCE
IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR DURING 25 - 26 JANUARY IN RESPONSE TO A
PARTIAL-HALO CME OBSERVED EARLY 21 JANUARY. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE DISTURBANCE. ISOLATED MINOR
STORM INTERVALS MAY OCCUR AS WELL. THE FIELD IS EXPECTED TO RETURN
TO MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS BY 27 JANUARY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 JAN-27 JAN
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 JAN 098
PREDICTED   25 JAN-27 JAN  100/102/102
90 DAY MEAN        24 JAN 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 JAN  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 JAN-27 JAN  010/010-008/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 JAN-27 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/05
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01