:Product: 19980125RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 025 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 25 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  24/2100Z
TO 25/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SPOTLESS PLAGE AREA PRODUCED
A LONG-DURATION C1/SF FLARE AT 25/1512UT. THE FLARE SITE WAS NEAR
N21E25. AN ASSOCIATED, EASTWARD-DIRECTED CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS
OBSERVED DEPARTING THE EAST LIMB BEGINNING ABOUT 25/1500UT. REGION
8142 (S21W35) GREW SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCED A C-CLASS SUBFLARE LATE IN
THE PERIOD. REGION 8143 (S35E36) CONTINUED TO SLOWLY GROW IN SPOT
COUNT AND MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY, BUT PRODUCED NO FLARES. NEW REGION
8147 (S23E02) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8142 AND 8143 ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES. THERE
IS ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN M-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION 8143.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 24/2100Z TO 25/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET, BUT BECAME DISTURBED DURING 25/0400
- 0600UT WITH ACTIVE LEVELS DETECTED AT ALL LATITUDES. FIELD
ACTIVITY DECLINED TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED TOMORROW SUBSIDING TO MOSTLY QUIET
LEVELS FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 26 JAN-28 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           25 JAN 108
PREDICTED   26 JAN-28 JAN  106/108/110
90 DAY MEAN        25 JAN 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 24 JAN  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 25 JAN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 26 JAN-28 JAN  008/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 26 JAN-28 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02