:Product: 19980128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 028 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A SINGLE UNCORRELATED C1 X-RAY
EVENT WAS DETECTED AT 28/0253Z. THERE ARE CURRENTLY FIVE ACTIVE
REGIONS ON THE VISIBLE DISK, WITH REGION 8143 (S36W04) BEING THE
MOST COMPLEX AS A 17-SPOT 'FAI' BETA-GAMMA. ALL ACTIVE REGIONS HAVE
REMAINED RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS, WITH A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED PERIODS OF MINOR STORMING, IN
RESPONSE TO THE PARTIAL HALO CME DETECTED ON 25 JANUARY.  THIS
DISTURBANCE IS NOT EXPECTED TO LAST LONGER THAN 24 HOURS, WITH
ACTIVITY DECREASING TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 JAN-31 JAN
CLASS M    10/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 JAN 097
PREDICTED   29 JAN-31 JAN  098/098/098
90 DAY MEAN        28 JAN 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 JAN  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 JAN  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 JAN-31 JAN  020/015-015/020-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 JAN-31 JAN
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                60/50/20
MINOR STORM           20/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/02
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                70/60/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/05/01