:Product: 19980130RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 030 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THE THREE ACTIVE REGIONS
CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK HAVE ALL BEEN QUIET AND UNREMARKABLE
DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF MINOR STORMING RECORDED AT
ALL LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 30/0300-0600Z. THIS DISTURBANCE
WAS LIKELY CAUSED BY THE PARTIAL HALO CME DETECTED ON 25 JANUARY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, WITH
CONDITIONS DECREASING TO MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 JAN-02 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 JAN 091
PREDICTED   31 JAN-02 FEB  090/089/088
90 DAY MEAN        30 JAN 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 JAN  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 JAN  020/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 JAN-02 FEB  008/010-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 JAN-02 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01