:Product: 19980131RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Jan 31 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 031 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 31 JAN 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  30/2100Z
TO 31/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NO FLARES OCCURRED, AS THE
VISIBLE DISK REMAINS QUIET AND STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 30/2100Z TO 31/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL AN ISOLATED DISTURBANCE HIT AT
APPROXIMATELY 31/1530Z, CAUSING ACTIVITY TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED
(31/1500-1800Z) AND THEN ACTIVE (31/1800-2100Z). THIS DISTURBANCE
COINCIDED WITH AN ABRUPT RISE IN THE SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
(~350 TO 450 KM/S) AND DENSITY (~5-23 P/CC). THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX WAS ABOVE THE HIGH THRESHOLD FOR APPROXIMATELY ONE
HALF HOUR STARTING AT 31/1801Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 FEB-03 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           31 JAN 089
PREDICTED   01 FEB-03 FEB  087/087/087
90 DAY MEAN        31 JAN 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 30 JAN  012/019
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 31 JAN  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 FEB-03 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 FEB-03 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01