:Product: 19980202RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 033 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW REGION 8149 (N25E70),
A SPOTLESS PLAGE REGION, PRODUCED A B7.7/SF FLARE AT 02/1755Z. THIS
REGION IS JUST COMING ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK AND NO SPOTS HAVE BEEN
DETECTED YET. THE REMAINDER OF THE DISK AND LIMB REMAINED QUIET AND
STABLE SAVE FOR A MINOR FILAMENT ERUPTION IN THE NW QUADRANT. NEW
REGION 8148 (S29E10), A RAPIDLY DISSIPATING BXO SPOT GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED TODAY ALSO.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. REGION 8149 MAY HAVE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED C-CLASS
ACTIVITY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARE IF IT
GROWS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
CLASS M    05/10/10
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 FEB 089
PREDICTED   03 FEB-05 FEB  090/090/088
90 DAY MEAN        02 FEB 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 FEB  010/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 FEB  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 FEB-05 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 FEB-05 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01