:Product: 19980204RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 035 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. AN OPTICALLY-UNCORRELATED
B6 X-RAY FLARE OCCURRED AT 04/1751UT. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME)
WAS SEEN DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB AROUND THE TIME OF THE FLARE. THE
CME DID NOT APPEAR TO BE EARTH-DIRECTED. THERE WERE TWO SMALL,
STABLE SUNSPOT REGIONS PRESENT ON THE DISK. NO NEW REGIONS WERE
ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING
04/0000 - 0600UT. THE ACTIVE LEVELS WERE BRIEF AND CONFINED TO THE
UPPER MIDDLE AND HIGH LATITUDES. OTHERWISE, THE FIELD WAS AT MOSTLY
QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 FEB-07 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 FEB 089
PREDICTED   05 FEB-07 FEB  090/090/090
90 DAY MEAN        04 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 FEB  004/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 FEB-07 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 FEB-07 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01