:Product: 19980207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 038 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 07 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  06/2100Z
TO 07/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8152 (S22W71) IS
THE LIKELY SOURCE REGION FOR SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED MINOR
B-CLASS FLARES. THIS REGION EXHIBITED NUMEROUS INTENSITY
FLUCTUATIONS IN THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT SHOWED NO APPARENT CHANGE IN
SPOT COUNT OR COMPLEXITY. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 06/2100Z TO 07/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET. A POOR-QUALITY SOUTHERN CORONAL
HOLE EXTENSION IS IN A GEOEFFECTIVELY FAVORABLE POSITION AND MAY
CREATE INTERMITTENT PERIODS OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS IN THE NORTHERN
LATITUDES
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           07 FEB 083
PREDICTED   08 FEB-10 FEB  083/083/084
90 DAY MEAN        07 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 06 FEB  002/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 07 FEB  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 08 FEB-10 FEB  005/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 08 FEB-10 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/05/05
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01