:Product: 19980209RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 040 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 09 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  08/2100Z
TO 09/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A FEW B-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS
WERE DETECTED. THERE WERE TWO SMALL, STABLE SPOT GROUPS PRESENT,
INCLUDING NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8154 (S21E34).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 08/2100Z TO 09/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE LEVELS DURING
08/2100-2400UT, THEN DECLINED TO MOSTLY QUIET LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           09 FEB 084
PREDICTED   10 FEB-12 FEB  084/084/084
90 DAY MEAN        09 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 08 FEB  006/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 09 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 10 FEB-12 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 10 FEB-12 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01