:Product: 19980210RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 041 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. A SINGLE OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED B-CLASS X-RAY BURST OCCURRED. A PARTIAL-HALO CORONAL
MASS EJECTION (CME) WAS SEEN DEPARTING THE EAST LIMB BEGINNING
10/0155UT. THE CME APPEARED TO BE MOSTLY EASTWARDLY-DIRECTED AND WAS
SLIGHTLY INCLINED TO THE ECLIPTIC. THERE WAS NO OBVIOUS SOURCE FOR
THE CME EVENT. NEW REGIONS 8155 (S14E04) AND 8156 (S24E70) WERE
NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 FEB 084
PREDICTED   11 FEB-13 FEB  084/084/084
90 DAY MEAN        10 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 FEB  007/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 FEB  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 FEB-13 FEB  007/005-007/005-007/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 FEB-13 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01