:Product: 19980211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 042 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8156 (S24E56) GREW
SLIGHTLY AND PRODUCED ISOLATED SUBFLARES. NEW REGIONS 8157 (N28E66)
AND 8158 (S19E77) WERE NUMBERED TODAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW WITH A SMALL CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING MOST OF
THE PERIOD. HOWEVER,  ACTIVITY INCREASED DURING 10/0200 - 0300UT WITH ACTIVE
LEVELS DETECTED AT ALL LATITUDES, AND AGAIN DURING 10/1300 - 1500UT
WITH ACTIVE LEVELS DETECTED AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND ACTIVE TO MAJOR
STORM LEVELS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE
FOR ACTIVE LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 FEB 086
PREDICTED   12 FEB-14 FEB  086/086/086
90 DAY MEAN        11 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 FEB  006/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 FEB  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 FEB-14 FEB  007/008-007/008-010/007
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 FEB-14 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           01/01/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01