:Product: 19980213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 044 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ONLY INFREQUENT B-CLASS
X-RAY FLARES OCCURRED. REGION 8156 (S25E30) CONTINUED TO GROW AND IS
NOW AN E-TYPE SUNPOT GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. ISOLATED C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE IN REGION 8156.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 FEB 095
PREDICTED   14 FEB-16 FEB  096/098/098
90 DAY MEAN        13 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 FEB  008/008
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 FEB  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 FEB-16 FEB  010/007-010/007-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 FEB-16 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01