:Product: 19980214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 045 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8156 (S24E16)
CONTINUED TO EMERGE, INCREASING IN BOTH SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER. THE
LARGEST FLARE FROM THIS REGION DURING THE PAST DAY WAS A SF/B8 AT
14/0952Z. THIS RELATIVELY UNREMARKABLE FLARE IN X-RAYS AND H-ALPHA
WAS APPARENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH A "SOUTHWARD DIRECTED, HALO CME"
EVENT OBSERVED IN THE SOHO/LASCO INSTRUMENT. REGION 8159 (N33E41)
WAS NEWLY NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW. INCREASED FLARE ACTIVITY IS PROBABLE IF REGION 8156
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET AT MIDDLE LATITUDES AND QUIET TO UNSETTLED AT
HIGH LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 FEB 105
PREDICTED   15 FEB-17 FEB  110/115/115
90 DAY MEAN        14 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 FEB  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 FEB  004/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 FEB-17 FEB  005/007-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 FEB-17 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01