:Product: 19980216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 047 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8156 (S25W09) CONTINUES
TO GROW AND IS NOW A MODERATELY SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP. THE
LARGEST X-RAY FLARE SINCE YESTERDAY WAS A C3 AT 16/0326Z. NO OPTICAL
FLARE REPORTS WERE RECEIVED. REGION 8161 (N25E54) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY IN REGION 8156. M-CLASS ACTIVITY IN THIS
REGION IS POSSIBLE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX
AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE TO HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 FEB 107
PREDICTED   17 FEB-19 FEB  105/105/100
90 DAY MEAN        16 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 FEB  003/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 FEB  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 FEB-19 FEB  005/005-005/008-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 FEB-19 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/10
MINOR STORM           01/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01