:Product: 19980217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 048 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8156 (S25W21) GENERATED
ONE C2/SF FLARE AT 17/0953Z, AND WAS ALSO THE LIKELY ORIGIN FOR AN
UNCORRELATED C1 EVENT AT 17/0351Z. REGION 8156 HAS REMAINED
RELATIVELY STABLE SINCE YESTERDAY AS A 24-SPOT EKI BETA GROUP.  THE
FOUR ADDITIONAL ACTIVE REGIONS CURRENTLY ON THE VISIBLE DISK, 8157
(N22E11), 8158 (S21W03), 8160 (N22E11), AND 8161 (N25E40), ARE ALL
QUIET AND UNREMARKABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH A 50% CHANCE OF ADDITIONAL C-CLASS EVENTS FROM REGION 8156.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE PAST
24 HOURS, WITH A SINGLE PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED AT HIGH
LATITUDES DURING THE INTERVAL 17/1200-1500Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS, WITH THE
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS ON
DAYS TWO AND THREE ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 FEB-20 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 FEB 105
PREDICTED   18 FEB-20 FEB  105/105/105
90 DAY MEAN        17 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 FEB  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 FEB  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 FEB-20 FEB  008/010-005/010-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 FEB-20 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01