:Product: 19980218RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 049 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 18 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  17/2100Z
TO 18/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8156 (S25W34), CURRENTLY
A 16-SPOT 'EHI' BETA-GAMMA, GENERATED THREE C-CLASS EVENTS DURING
THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE LARGEST A C5/1F AT 18/1138Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW, WITH A GOOD PROBABILITY FOR CONTINUED C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM
REGION 8156.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 17/2100Z TO 18/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS, WITH AN ISOLATED PERIOD OF MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING
RECORDED DURING THE INTERVAL 18/0000-0300Z. THIS DISTURBANCE IS
THOUGHT TO BE RELATED TO THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION ACTIVITY OF 14
FEBRUARY.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS, AND MOSTLY
QUIET THEREAFTER FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 19 FEB-21 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           18 FEB 103
PREDICTED   19 FEB-21 FEB  105/103/100
90 DAY MEAN        18 FEB   096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 17 FEB  012/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 18 FEB  022/025
PREDICTED AFR/AP 19 FEB-21 FEB  008/008-005/005-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 19 FEB-21 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01