:Product: 19980219RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 050 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, WITH REGION 8156 (S25W47)
GENERATING A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
WITH THE CONTINUED CHANCE FOR C-CLASS ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8156.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 FEB 099
PREDICTED   20 FEB-22 FEB  097/095/095
90 DAY MEAN        19 FEB 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 FEB  015/026
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 FEB  005/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 FEB-22 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 FEB-22 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01