:Product: 19980220RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 20 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 051 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 20 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  19/2100Z
TO 20/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW, DUE TO A SINGLE C1/SF EVENT
FROM REGION 8156 AT 20/1011Z. REGION 8156 REMAINS A STABLE 9-SPOT
'EKO' BETA-GAMMA GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW, WITH THE CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED C-CLASS
ACTIVITY FROM REGION 8156.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 19/2100Z TO 20/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS,
EXCEPT FOR A SINGLE ISOLATED PERIOD OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS RECORDED
DURING THE INTERVAL 20/0000-0300Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 21 FEB-23 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           20 FEB 096
PREDICTED   21 FEB-23 FEB  094/093/092
90 DAY MEAN        20 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 19 FEB  005/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 20 FEB  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 21 FEB-23 FEB  005/005-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 21 FEB-23 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01