:Product: 19980221RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 052 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. ISOLATED B-CLASS X-RAY
BURSTS WERE DETECTED WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATIONS. REGION 8156 (S25
W72) APPEARED TO BE IN A PERIOD OF GRADUAL DECAY, LOSING A FEW
SPOTS. NEW REGION 8162 (S32E46), A SMALL, STABLE B-CLASS GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED. A CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME) WAS DETECTED BEGINNING
AROUND 21/0200UT. MOST OF THE MASS WAS SEEN DEPARTING THE WEST LIMB,
SLIGHTLY DECLINED TO THE ECLIPTIC.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW WITH REGION 8156 PROVIDING A FAIR CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
C-CLASS SUBFLARE.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX INCREASED TO HIGH LEVELS BEGINNING 21/1812UT.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET THROUGH 23 FEBRUARY. ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS ON THE FINAL DAY OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO
DECLINE TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 FEB 095
PREDICTED   22 FEB-24 FEB  094/092/090
90 DAY MEAN        21 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 FEB  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 FEB  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 FEB-24 FEB  005/008-005/005-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 FEB-24 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/25
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01