:Product: 19980222RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 053 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO LOW LEVELS WITH A OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY BURST DETECTED LATE IN THE PERIOD. REGION
8156 (S25W89) WAS STABLE AS IT APPROACHED THE WEST LIMB. 8158
(S20W69) GREW FROM PLAGE TO A SMALL B-CLASS GROUP AS SEVERAL SPOTS
EMERGED. NEW REGION 8163 (S22W28), A SMALL B-CLASS GROUP, WAS
NUMBERED. FURTHER ANALYSIS OF THE CORONAL MASS EJECTION (CME)
DESCRIBED IN YESTERDAY'S REPORT INDICATED THE CME WAS LIKELY
NON-EARTH DIRECTED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW. HOWEVER, THERE IS A FAIR CHANCE FOR A C-CLASS FLARE FROM REGION
8156 AS IT ROUNDS THE LIMB TOMORROW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET THROUGH 23 FEBRUARY. ACTIVITY IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE DURING 24 - 25 FEBRUARY WITH MOSTLY UNSETTLED CONDITIONS
EXPECTED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 FEB 096
PREDICTED   23 FEB-25 FEB  094/092/090
90 DAY MEAN        22 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 FEB  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 FEB  004/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 FEB-25 FEB  005/005-010/008-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 FEB-25 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/30/30
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/35/35
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01