:Product: 19980223RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 054 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED
C-CLASS X-RAY BURSTS OCCURRED. A WEAK TYPE IV RADIO SWEEP WAS
DETECTED AT 23/0017UT. BRIGHT LOOP STRUCTURES WERE VISIBLE ABOVE OLD
REGION 8156 (NOW A DAY BEYOND THE WEST LIMB) AROUND THE TIME OF THE
SWEEP, MAKING IT THE LIKELY SOURCE. REGION 8158 (S18W82) DISPLAYED
GRADUAL GROWTH AND PRODUCED A COUPLE SUBFLARES AS IT APPROACHED THE
WEST LIMB.  NEWLY NUMBERED REGION 8164 (N18E14) EMERGED RAPIDLY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD, THEN STABILIZED AS A SMALL B-TYPE. NEW REGION
8165 (N27E53) WAS ALSO NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
REGIONS 8158 AND 8164 MAY PRODUCE C-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX REACHED HIGH LEVELS LATE IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC FIELD ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UNSETTLED LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECLINE TO
MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 FEB-26 FEB
CLASS M    05/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 FEB 099
PREDICTED   24 FEB-26 FEB  098/096/094
90 DAY MEAN        23 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 FEB  004/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 FEB  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 FEB-26 FEB  010/010-012/015-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 FEB-26 FEB
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01