:Product: 19980224RSGA.txt :Issued: 1998 Feb 24 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SDF NUMBER 055 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 FEB 1998 IA. ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8164 (N16E01) CONTINUED A PERIOD OF GROWTH THAT BEGAN YESTERDAY, AND DEVELOPED INTO A SMALL D-TYPE GROUP. IT PRODUCED AN ISOLATED C-CLASS SUBFLARE AROUND MID-PERIOD. A 19 DEGREE FILAMENT DISAPPEARED DURING 23/2058 - 2155UT. IT WAS LAST SEEN AT N22W06. NEW REGIONS 8166 (N22W25) AND 8167 (S27E17) WERE NUMBERED IB. SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST: SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY LOW TO LOW. REGION 8164 IS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED C-CLASS FLARE PRODUCTION. IIA. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO MODERATE TO NORMAL LEVELS. IIB. GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST: THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD. ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE FIRST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. III. EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 FEB-27 FEB CLASS M 01/01/01 CLASS X 01/01/01 PROTON 01/01/01 PCAF GREEN IV. PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX OBSERVED 24 FEB 099 PREDICTED 25 FEB-27 FEB 098/096/094 90 DAY MEAN 24 FEB 096 V. GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 FEB 006/011 ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 FEB 004/007 PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 FEB-27 FEB 012/015-010/008-010/008 VI. GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 FEB-27 FEB A. MIDDLE LATITUDES ACTIVE 30/20/10 MINOR STORM 10/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01 B. HIGH LATITUDES ACTIVE 35/20/10 MINOR STORM 15/10/05 MAJOR-SEVERE STORM 01/01/01