:Product: 19980227RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 058 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW.  THREE NEW REGIONS WERE
NUMBERED TODAY: REGION 8169 (S20W44) IS A 3-SPOT BXO BETA, REGION
8170 (N00E02) IS A 1-SPOT AXX, AND REGION 8171 (S214E05) IS A 3-SPOT
BXO BETA.  REGION 8164 HAS DECREASED IN SIZE TO 90 MILLIONTHS,
BUT REMAINS THE LARGEST AND MOST ACTIVE REGION.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.  SEVERAL NEW REGIONS HAVE BEEN NUMBERED, AND BEGIN TO
GROW.  REGION 8164 RETAINS THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE C-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY QUIET FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD WITH
A SMALL CHANCE FOR ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGHER LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 FEB-02 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 FEB 090
PREDICTED   28 FEB-02 MAR  090/090/090
90 DAY MEAN        27 FEB 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 FEB  000/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 FEB  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 FEB-02 MAR  010/012-005/008-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 FEB-02 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/10
MINOR STORM           01/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01