:Product: 19980228RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Feb 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 059 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 FEB 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8164 (N16W51)
CONTINUES TO DECAY WITH ONLY FIVE SPOTS NOW VISIBLE IN WHITE LIGHT.
REGION 8171 (S24W10) EXHIBITED SLIGHT GROWTH AND PRODUCED A B1/SF AT
28/0926Z. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
VERY LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED WITH ISOLATED
PERIODS OF ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH 01 MAR WITH ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS AT HIGH LATITUDES. QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN BY 2 MAR.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 FEB 094
PREDICTED   01 MAR-03 MAR  091/091/090
90 DAY MEAN        28 FEB 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 FEB  002/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 FEB  007/009
PREDICTED AFR/AP 01 MAR-03 MAR  008/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 01 MAR-03 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/01/01
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01