:Product: 19980302RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 061 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8171 (S23W36) CONTINUED
TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT. SUNSPOT AREA AND NUMBER HAS INCREASED BUT
MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY REMAINS RELATIVELY SIMPLE. THIS REGION HAS
PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES SINCE YESTERDAY, THE LARGEST BEING A
C1/SF AT 02/1216Z. DUE TO INCLEMENT WEATHER AT THE DOMINION RADIO
ASTROPHYSICAL OBSERVATORY (PENTICTON), TODAY'S NOON 10.7 CM RADIO
FLUX VALUE IS ESTIMATED AS THEIR MORNING (1700Z) READING.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGION 8171. THE
LIKELIHOOD OF M-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IF DEVELOPMENT
CONTINUES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. ACTIVE CONDITIONS
WERE OBSERVED AT MANY LOCATIONS DURING THE 02/0600-0900Z PERIOD. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS MODERATE AFTER ABOUT 02/1600Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 MAR-05 MAR
CLASS M    05/10/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 MAR 092
PREDICTED   03 MAR-05 MAR  100/100/098
90 DAY MEAN        02 MAR 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 MAR  009/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 MAR-05 MAR  005/005-010/010-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 MAR-05 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05