:Product: 19980303RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 062 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8171 (S23W50) REMAINS
THE LARGEST SUNSPOT GROUP ON THE VISIBLE DISK. THIS REGION HAS
CONTINUED TO GROW IN WHITE LIGHT AREA BUT REMAINS RELATIVELY SIMPLE
IN MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THE REGION PRODUCED SEVERAL C-CLASS
SUBFLARES SINCE YESTERDAY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
ADDITIONAL C-CLASS FLARES ARE LIKELY IN REGION 8171. A SMALL M-CLASS
FLARE IS POSSIBLE BUT NOT IMMINENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 MAR-06 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 MAR 097
PREDICTED   04 MAR-06 MAR  098/098/096
90 DAY MEAN        03 MAR 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 MAR  011/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 MAR  004/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 MAR-06 MAR  010/008-010/012-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 MAR-06 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01