:Product: 19980304RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 063 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8171 (S24W62) APPEARS TO
BE MATURING AS A MODERATELY-SIZED E-TYPE SUNSPOT GROUP WITHOUT
APPRECIABLE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. THE REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
SMALL C-CLASS FLARES, THE LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C2/SF AT 04/0719Z.
A PARTIAL-HALO CME WAS OBSERVED IN THE LASCO CORONOGRAPH AT ABOUT
03/0900Z. REGION 8172 (N22W35) IS GROWING SLOWLY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
C-CLASS ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE IN REGION 8171.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ATLTITUDE WAS MODERATE.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 MAR-07 MAR
CLASS M    05/05/05
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 MAR 102
PREDICTED   05 MAR-07 MAR  098/096/094
90 DAY MEAN        04 MAR 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 MAR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 MAR  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 MAR-07 MAR  010/012-005/008-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 MAR-07 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05