:Product: 19980310RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 069 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 10 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  09/2100Z
TO 10/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. TWO NEW REGIONS ROTATED
INTO VIEW, 8178 (S15E72) AND 8179 (S22E60), MAKING A TOTAL OF 5
SPOTTED REGIONS NOW VISIBLE. REGION 8179 IS THE LIKELY RETURN OF OLD
8156, THE PRODUCER OF MANY C-CLASS FLARES LAST ROTATION. A LARGE
BUSHY FILAMENT POSITIONED NEAR S50E10 DISAPPEARED EARLY IN THE
PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 09/2100Z TO 10/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET UNTIL 0600Z. ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM
CONDITIONS HAVE PREVAILED SINCE. SOLAR WIND DATA SHOW A STEADY
INCREASE IN SPEED STARTING NEAR 0600Z AND CONTINUING TO A MAXIMUM
VALUE NEAR 500 KM/S AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. OTHER SOLAR WIND DATA
SUGGEST THE POSSIBLE SOURCE OF THE ACTIVITY TO BE A HIGH SPEED
STREAM ORIGINATING FROM THE SOLAR SOUTHWEST QUADRANT, ALTHOUGH AN
EXACT DETERMINATION IS ELUSIVE AT THIS POINT. THE ENHANCED TOTAL
FIELD IN THE SOLAR WIND ARGUES FOR A CONTRIBUTION FROM A CME AS
WELL.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AT ACTIVE TO MINOR STORM LEVELS FOR THE MAJORITY
OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE DISTURBANCE SHOULD THEN WEAKEN WITH TIME,
GIVING WAY TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED CONDITIONS BY THE END OF THE
INTERVAL.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           10 MAR 096
PREDICTED   11 MAR-13 MAR  099/102/105
90 DAY MEAN        10 MAR 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 09 MAR  001/003
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 10 MAR  025/030
PREDICTED AFR/AP 11 MAR-13 MAR  025/020-010/010-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 11 MAR-13 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/20/10
MINOR STORM           20/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                50/25/15
MINOR STORM           20/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01