:Product: 19980311RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 070 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 11 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  10/2100Z
TO 11/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. NEW FLUX EMERGENCE IS
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF REGIONS 8178 (S16E59) AND 8179
(S23E50). THIS COMPLEX MAY PROVE TO CONSIST OF MORE THAN TWO GROUPS,
BUT THAT DETERMINATION AWAITS FURTHER ANALYSIS AFFECTED BY LESS
FORESHORTENING TOMORROW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FLARE ACTIVITY
OCCURRED, AND THE LIMBS WERE STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE VERY
LOW TO LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 10/2100Z TO 11/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD PERSISTED AT ACTIVE TO MAJOR STORM CONDITIONS
FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE PERIOD. THIS ACTIVITY BEGAN YESTERDAY NEAR
0900Z AND IS NOW WANING. CONSTANT SOLAR WIND SPEEDS IN EXCESS OF 500
KM/S OCCURRED DURING THE ENTIRE INTERVAL. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT ATTAINED HIGH LEVELS AT 1458Z.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED EARLY, AS THE CURRENT DISTURBANCE GRADUALLY
WEAKENS. EPISODES OF SUBSTORM ACTIVITY ARE POSSIBLE DURING LOCAL
NIGHTTIMES IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. QUIET CONDITIONS SHOULD DOMINATE
THE LAST 2 DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           11 MAR 101
PREDICTED   12 MAR-14 MAR  105/110/115
90 DAY MEAN        11 MAR 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 10 MAR  026/025
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 11 MAR  025/028
PREDICTED AFR/AP 12 MAR-14 MAR  010/010-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 12 MAR-14 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/30/20
MINOR STORM           15/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01