:Product: 19980312RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 12 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 071 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 12 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  11/2100Z
TO 12/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 X-RAY BURST OCCURRED AT
0122Z, BUT WAS NOT OPTICALLY CORRELATED. THE PRIMARY AREA OF
INTEREST ON THE DISK IS THE COMPLEX LOCATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. TWO
NEW REGIONS WERE IDENTIFIED THERE; REGION 8180 (S29E42), JUST SOUTH
OF PRE-EXISTING REGION 8179 (S24E36), AND REGION 8181 (S20E48), A
SMALL BUT SPOTTED GROUP SOUTH OF REGION 8178 (S17E47). THERE HAS
BEEN LITTLE ACTIVITY FROM ANY OF THESE FOUR REGIONS, DESPITE THEIR
CLOSE PROXIMITY.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
AN ISOLATED C-CLASS EVENT IS LIKELY IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 11/2100Z TO 12/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. BRIEF PERIODS OF
SUBSTORMING OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           12 MAR 102
PREDICTED   13 MAR-15 MAR  105/105/110
90 DAY MEAN        12 MAR 094
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 11 MAR  020/028
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 12 MAR  012/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 13 MAR-15 MAR  010/008-005/005-005/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 13 MAR-15 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/20/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01