:Product: 19980313RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 072 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 13 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  12/2100Z
TO 13/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. X-RAYS PASSED THE C-LEVEL VERY
LATE IN THE PERIOD, REACHING THE C5 LEVEL AT 2108Z. AT THIS WRITING
NO OPTICAL REPORT HAS BEEN RECEIVED. NEW SPOTS EMERGED IN PREVIOUSLY
SPOTLESS REGION 8173 (S19W83). THIS WAS THE SITE  OF A SUBFLARE AND
OCCASIONAL SURGING. THE OTHER 6 SPOTTED REGIONS VISIBLE WERE
SIMPLIFYING, IN GENERAL. REGION 8176 (S40W07) LOST SPOTS BUT GAINED
AREA AS DEVELOPMENT OCCURRED IN THE TRAILER.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 12/2100Z TO 13/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. SHORT-LIVED SUBSTORMS
OCCURRED DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. BRIEF SUBSTORMS MAY PERSIST
DURING LOCAL NIGHTTIMES FOR THE NEXT DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
CLASS M    01/01/01
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           13 MAR 105
PREDICTED   14 MAR-16 MAR  105/105/105
90 DAY MEAN        13 MAR 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 12 MAR  008/012
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 13 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 14 MAR-16 MAR  005/008-005/005-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 14 MAR-16 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01