:Product: 19980314RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 073 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 14 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  13/2100Z
TO 14/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8173 (S18W96) PRODUCED A
C5/SF AT 13/2108Z AS IT ROUNDED THE WEST LIMB. AN ASSOCIATED CME WAS
OBSERVED BUT MATERIAL APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY WESTWARD DIRECTED. REGION
8179 (S22E09) EXHIBITED IMPRESSIVE GROWTH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS AND
IS NOW A  D-TYPE SPOT GROUP WITH MODERATE MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY. SPOT
COUNT WENT FROM 12 TO 38 IN JUST 12 HOURS. THIS REGION PRODUCED
NUMEROUS SUBFLARES THIS PERIOD, MOST WITH HIGH B OR LOW C-CLASS
X-RAYS. REGION 8176 DECAYED SLIGHTLY AND IS NOW A 15 SPOT E-TYPE
GROUP. REMAINING REGIONS WERE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. AT ITS PRESENT GROWTH RATE, REGION 8179 WILL QUICKLY
DEVELOP POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 13/2100Z TO 14/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT REMAINED HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR
CLASS M    35/40/40
CLASS X    05/10/10
PROTON     05/10/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           14 MAR 120
PREDICTED   15 MAR-17 MAR  120/122/122
90 DAY MEAN        14 MAR 095
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 13 MAR  012/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 14 MAR  010/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 15 MAR-17 MAR  008/005-008/008-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 15 MAR-17 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01