:Product: 19980316RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 075 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 16 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  15/2100Z
TO 16/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. TWO OPTICALLY UNCORROLATED
M-CLASS EVENTS OCCURRED: AN M2 WITH MINOR RADIO BURSTS AT 15/2141Z
AND AN M1 AT 16/0102Z. NO SOON SITES WERE OBSERVING THE SUN DURING
THE EVENTS BUT REGION 8179 (S22W17) IS THE LIKELY SOURCE. THIS
REGION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE FREQUENT C-CLASS FLARES INCLUDING A
C7/1N AT 16/1157Z AND A C6/1F AT 1714Z. THE REGION APPEARS TO HAVE
MATURED NOW AS AN EKC, 50 SPOT BETA GAMMA GROUP WITH AREAL COVERAGE
OF 800 MILLIONTHS. THE WEAK DELTA MAGNETIC CONFIGURATION IS NO
LONGER APPARENT. CORONAL INSTRUMENTS ON THE SOHO SATELLITE OBSERVED
A HALO/CME OFF THE SE LIMB BEGINNING AT 15/1930Z. THIS COINCIDES
WITH THE THE MOST IMPULSIVE OF REGION 8179'S FLARES - YESTERDAY'S
M1/1B. THE REMAINING REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. REGION 8179 HAS LOST A LITTLE OF ITS MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY;
HOWEVER, IT REMAINS A LARGE AND COMPLEX REGION, UNDERGOING FREQUENT
CHANGES IN SUNSPOT CONFIGURATION. GOOD POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR
M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 15/2100Z TO 16/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SHORT-LIVED PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED AT HIGH LATITUDES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ISOLATED ACTIVE CONDITIONS
ARE AGAIN EXPECTED AT HIGH LATITUDES. A MINOR DISTURBANCE ASSOCIATED
WITH YESTERDAY'S HALO/CME IS EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
CLASS M    50/50/45
CLASS X    15/15/10
PROTON     15/15/10
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           16 MAR 124
PREDICTED   17 MAR-19 MAR  124/122/120
90 DAY MEAN        16 MAR 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 15 MAR  012/018
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 16 MAR  012/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 17 MAR-19 MAR  010/012-010/008-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 17 MAR-19 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/30
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/25/40
MINOR STORM           05/05/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/10