:Product: 19980317RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 076 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 17 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  16/2100Z
TO 17/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179 (S22W30) PRODUCED
SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS, THE LARGEST BEING A C3/1F AT 17/1329Z.
THIS REGION HAS LOST MORE OF ITS MAGNETIC COMPLEXITY BUT MAINTAINS A
LARGE E-TYPE BETA-GAMMA CONFIGURATION WITH 44 SUNSPOTS COVERING 780
MILLIONTHS IN WHITE LIGHT AREA. FREQUENT SUBFLARES AND PLAGE
FLUCTUATIONS WERE OBSERVED AND NUMEROUS MINOR RADIO BURSTS AND
SWEEPS WERE DETECTED. A FAINT, PARTIAL HALO/CME WAS OBSERVED AT
APPROXIMATELY 17/1500Z OFF THE SW LIMB, PROBABLY A RESULT OF THIS
MORNING'S C3/1F FLARE. A LARGE, 23 DEGREE LONG FILAMENT DISAPPEARED
DURING THE INTERVAL 16/2204-17/1147Z FROM THE SE LIMB. ALL REMAINING
REGIONS HAVE BEEN QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8179, ALTHOUGH SHOWING SLIGHT DECAY, STILL HAS
THE POTENTIAL FOR M-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 16/2100Z TO 17/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ON DAY 2 AS A RESULT OF THE M1/1B HALO/CME ON 15/1900Z.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
CLASS M    35/35/30
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     10/10/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           17 MAR 126
PREDICTED   18 MAR-20 MAR  122/120/118
90 DAY MEAN        17 MAR 096
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 16 MAR  010/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 17 MAR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 18 MAR-20 MAR  010/010-015/012-012/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 18 MAR-20 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/30/20
MINOR STORM           05/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/40/30
MINOR STORM           05/25/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/10/05