:Product: 19980319RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 19 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 078 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 19 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  18/2100Z
TO 19/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. REGION 8183 (N22E44)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE AT 19/0125Z. THIS REGION IS SLOWLY GROWING
AND ALSO PRODUCED THREE C-CLASS FLARES IN THE PAST 24 HOURS, THE
LARGEST OF WHICH WAS A C7/SF AT 19/1152Z. REGION 8179 (S22W56) HAS
BEGUN DECAYING SLOWLY AS IT NEARS THE WEST LIMB. THIS REGION DID NOT
PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT ACTIVITY EXCEPT A FEW MINOR SUBFLARES. A
REVIEW OF THE LASCO IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY INDICATE ANOTHER PARTIAL
HALO/CME OCCURRED CONCURRENT WITH THE UNCORRELATED M1 FLARE AT
18/1112Z. A MAJORITY OF THE CME MASS APPEARED TO HAVE EJECTED FROM
THE E-SE SOLAR LIMB AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LITTLE GEOEFFECTIVENESS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LOW TO MODERATE FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. REGIONS 8179 AND
8183 BOTH HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF CONTINUED C-CLASS FLARING AND A
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY. BOTH REGIONS ALSO HAVE A
SMALL CHANCE OF ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 18/2100Z TO 19/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ENERGETIC ELCTRON FLUX REMAINED IN THE HIGH RANGES.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN
GENERALLY QUIET FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN MID
LATITUDES. HIGH LATITUDES MAY EXPERIENCE MOSTLY UNSETTLED ACTIVITY
OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 20 MAR-22 MAR
CLASS M    45/45/35
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           19 MAR 125
PREDICTED   20 MAR-22 MAR  124/122/116
90 DAY MEAN        19 MAR 097
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 18 MAR  004/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 19 MAR  004/007
PREDICTED AFR/AP 20 MAR-22 MAR  005/015-005/015-005/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 20 MAR-22 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/10/10
MINOR STORM           10/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/01/01