:Product: 19980321RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY COR
**********CORRECTED COPY**********
SDF NUMBER 080 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 21 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  20/2100Z
TO 21/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8179  (S22W82) PRODUCED
A SINGLE C1/SF FLARE AT 21/1826Z. TWO UNCORRELATED C-CLASS X-RAY
BURSTS WERE DETECTED AS WELL, A C1 AT 21/0252Z AND A C1 AT 21/0531Z.
REGION 8179 IS SLOWLY DECAYING AS IT APPROACHES THE WEST LIMB.
REGION 8180 (S29W71), SPOTLESS FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS, SHOWED A
RE-EMERGED, REVERSE POLARITY BXO SPOT GROUP TODAY. REGION 8185
(S24E71) CONTINUED TO GROW AS IT APPEARED OVER THE EAST LIMB.
INDICATIONS ARE THERE ARE MORE SPOTS TO FOLLOW IN THIS REGION. THE
REMAINDER OF THE SPOTS GROUPS, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE VISIBLE
DISK, WERE QUIET AND RELATIVELY STABLE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
TO MODERATE. REGION 8179 STILL HAS GOOD C-CLASS FLARE POTENTIAL, A
CHANCE OF ISOLATED M-CLASS ACTIVITY AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF AN
ISOLATED X-CLASS FLARE. REGION 8185 HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF C-CLASS
ACTIVITY, A SMALL CHANCE OF M-CLASS FLARING, AND A SMALL CHANCE OF
ISOLATED X-CLASS ACTIVITY.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 20/2100Z TO 21/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO MAJOR STORM AT ALL LATITUDES FOR
THE PAST 24 HOURS. MINOR TO MAJOR STORMING BEGAN JUST AFTER
21/0900Z. THIS ACTIVITY MAY BE THE RESULT OF A CME INDICATED BY THE
DISAPPEARANCE OF A 23 DEGREE FILAMENT IN THE SE QUADRANT, DETECTED
AT 16/1147Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT
NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO MINOR STORM FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS,
THEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
HIGH LATITUDE STATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF MINOR TO MAJOR
STORMING OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR
CLASS M    45/25/25
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           21 MAR 126
PREDICTED   22 MAR-24 MAR  124/122/120
90 DAY MEAN        21 MAR 098
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 20 MAR  008/007
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 21 MAR  028/032
PREDICTED AFR/AP 22 MAR-24 MAR  015/018-010/012-015/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 22 MAR-24 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/15/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05