:Product: 19980322RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 081 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 22 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  21/2100Z
TO 22/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME MODERATE. REGION 8185 (S24E64)
PRODUCED AN M1/1N FLARE WITH MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS. A TYPE
II SWEPT FREQUENCY BURST WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THE FLARE AND
ANOTHER TYPE II OCCURRED FOLLOWING THE MODERATELY IMPULSIVE X-RAY
FLARE. A SMALL WEAK CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED FOLLOWING
THIS FLARE BUT WAS OBSERVED TO PROPAGATE OUT OF THE ECLIPTIC. THIS
REGION HAS SHOWN ITSELF TO BE A MODERATE SIZE F-CLASS REGION WITH
INDICATIONS OF MIXED POLARITIES. THIS REGION MAY ALSO BE TWO ABUTTED
REGIONS SHARING A GENERALLY EAST-WEST NEUTRAL LINE. HOWEVER,
CONFLICTING MAGNETIC INFORMATION MADE CONFIRMATION OF ABUTTED
REGIONS IMPOSSIBLE. SEVERAL SMALL C-CLASS EVENTS WERE ALSO OBSERVED.
A SMALL FILAMENT LOCATED NEAR N27W36 FADED BETWEEN 22/1230-1901Z.
SMALL REGION 8186 (N09W23) WAS VISIBLE EARLY IN THE PERIOD AND FADED
MIDWAY THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. REGION 8185 IS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES. REGION 8179 (S24W87) IS MAKING
ITS WEST LIMB TRANSIT AND COULD PRODUCE AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY, THERE IS A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF AN X-CLASS
FLARE FROM EITHER OF THESE REGIONS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 21/2100Z TO 22/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD RANGED FROM QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE ACTIVE
INTERVAL WAS FROM 22/0900-1200Z. SOLAR WIND DATA DURING THE PERIOD
SHOWED A MODERATELY HIGH SPEED, LOW DENSITY STREAM IN THE EARTH'S
VICINITY. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUXES AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ORBIT WERE AT
MODERATE LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD AND RISING TOWARD THE END OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
GENERALLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED
ACTIVE PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
CLASS M    40/35/35
CLASS X    10/10/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           22 MAR 128
PREDICTED   23 MAR-25 MAR  120/115/103
90 DAY MEAN        22 MAR 098
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 21 MAR  020/033
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 22 MAR  010/018
PREDICTED AFR/AP 23 MAR-25 MAR  005/008-010/012-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 23 MAR-25 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                30/30/35
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05