:Product: 19980323RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 082 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 23 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  22/2100Z
TO 23/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY REMAINDED MODERATE. AN OPTICALLY
UNCORRELATED M2 FLARE WAS OBSERVED AT 23/0309Z. REGION 8185 (S25E51)
IS A MODERATE SIZE CLASS F SUNSPOT GROUP WITH MIXED MAGNETIC
POLARITIES. HOWEVER, THIS REGION HAS NOT EXHIBITED RAPID EVOLUTION.
A SMALL REGION EMERGED NEAR S23W74 AND WAS NUMBERED AS NEW REGION
8187. SEVERAL CORONAL MASS EJECTIONS OCCURRED DURING THE PERIOD. ONE
WAS FROM THE NORTHEAST LIMB WHERE A SMALL TO MODERATE SIZE REGION IS
ABOUT TO ROTATE ONTO THE VISIBLE DISK. THE LATTER EVENT WAS LARGE
AND SLOW FROM THE WEST LIMB BEGINNING ABOUT 23/0700Z. NEITHER
EJECTION APPEARED TO BE PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE EARTH.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. DESPITE ITS LACK OF DYNAMICS, REGION 8185 REMAINS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS FLARES.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 22/2100Z TO 23/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOLAR WIND VELOCITY
DROPPED STEADILY DURING THE PERIOD TO APPROXIMATELY 400 KM/S.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 24 MAR-26 MAR
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           23 MAR 122
PREDICTED   24 MAR-26 MAR  117/113/112
90 DAY MEAN        23 MAR 098
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 22 MAR  009/011
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 23 MAR  007/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 24 MAR-26 MAR  010/012-010/012-005/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 24 MAR-26 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05