:Product: 19980324RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 083 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 24 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  23/2100Z
TO 24/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY BECAME LOW. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT EVENT
WAS A LONG DURATION C8 FLARE AT 24/1114Z ASSOCIATED WITH A LOOP
PROMINENCE SYSTEM OBSERVED SLIGHTLY LATER AT S32W90. YET ANOTHER
CORONAL MASS EJECTION WAS OBSERVED WITH THIS EVENT. REGION 8185
(S24E38) WAS BASICALLY STABLE AND PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES. MIXED
POLARITIES REMAINED IN THIS REGION. REGION 8183 (N22W20) GREW
RAPIDLY DURING THE PERIOD AND ALSO PRODUCED SEVERAL SUBFLARES.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE. REGION 8185 REMAINS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS
EVENTS. C-CLASS AND ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS ARE POSSIBLE FROM REGION
8183 SHOULD RAPID GROWTH CONTINUE. EVENTS FROM THE ACTIVE REGION
COMPLEX BEHIND THE SOUTHWEST LIMB SHOULD BECOME LESS FREQUENT AS
THAT AREA ROTATES TO THE BACK SIDE OF THE SUN.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 23/2100Z TO 24/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD
REMAIN QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. ISOLATED ACTIVE
PERIODS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 25 MAR-27 MAR
CLASS M    35/35/35
CLASS X    10/05/05
PROTON     05/05/05
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           24 MAR 121
PREDICTED   25 MAR-27 MAR  119/117/117
90 DAY MEAN        24 MAR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 23 MAR  004/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 24 MAR  005/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 25 MAR-27 MAR  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 25 MAR-27 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05