:Product: 19980327RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 086 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 27 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  26/2100Z
TO 27/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. A C1 LONG DURATION EVENT WITH A
TYPE II RADIO SWEEP OCCURRED AT 27/0046Z. GROUND AND SPACE BASED
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE REGION 8188 (N30E30) AS THE SOURCE REGION. A
CME IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE DISK WAS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FLARE. REGION 8185 (S25W03) ALSO PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 27/1603Z.
SEVERAL OPTICALLY UNCORRELATED RADIO BURSTS AND SWEEPS ALSO OCCURRED
INCLUDING A 610MHZ, 2700SFU BURST AT 27/1454Z. NEW REGION 8189
(S27W17) WAS NUMBERED TODAY AND PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 27/1323Z.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGION 8185 REMAINS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 26/2100Z TO 27/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGH THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
QUIET TO UNSETTLED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
CLASS M    25/25/25
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           27 MAR 108
PREDICTED   28 MAR-30 MAR  108/105/105
90 DAY MEAN        27 MAR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 26 MAR  009/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 27 MAR  014/012
PREDICTED AFR/AP 28 MAR-30 MAR  010/010-010/010-010/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 28 MAR-30 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/25
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05