:Product: 19980328RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 087 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 28 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  27/2100Z
TO 28/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS MODERATE. A M1/3N LONG DURATION
EVENT OCCURRED AT 27/2227Z FROM REGION 8185 (S26W15). A HALO/CME WAS
ALSO OBSERVED WHICH COINCIDES WITH THIS EVENT. A C4/SF EVENT AT
28/0717Z OCCURRED FROM REGION 8183 (N22W73).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE LOW TO
MODERATE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. REGION 8185 STILL HAS A GOOD
CHANCE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENTS.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 27/2100Z TO 28/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE DURING THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED THE FIRST TWO DAYS OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD. UNSETTLED TO ACTIVE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON THE THIRD DAY
AS A RESULT OF THE M2/3N HALO/CME ON 27/2227Z.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 29 MAR-31 MAR
CLASS M    30/30/30
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           28 MAR 104
PREDICTED   29 MAR-31 MAR  102/100/098
90 DAY MEAN        28 MAR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 27 MAR  009/013
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 28 MAR  010/010
PREDICTED AFR/AP 29 MAR-31 MAR  010/015-010/012-015/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 29 MAR-31 MAR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/25
MINOR STORM           10/10/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/35
MINOR STORM           15/15/20
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/10