:Product: 19980329RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 088 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 29 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  28/2100Z
TO 29/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE
ACTIVITY FROM ANY OF THE FIVE SPOTTED REGIONS ON THE DISK. OPTICALLY
UNCORELATED TYPE II AND TYPE IV SWEEP FREQUENCY BURSTS WERE OBSERVED
TODAY. THE TYPE II WAS AT 29/0245Z WITH A SHOCK SPEED OF 600 KM/S
AND THE TYPE IV WAS OBSERVED FROM 29/0302Z-29/0332Z. A 27 DEGREE
LONG FILAMENT POSITIONED IN THE NW DISAPPEARED YESTERDAY BETWEEN
28/1826Z-28/2038Z. THE SOHO/LASCO INSTRUMENT OBSERVED A LARGE
PARTIAL HALO/CME AT ABOUT 29/0348Z. THE MATERIAL MAY HAVE ORIGINATED
ON THE BACK-SIDE OF THE DISK.  A NEW REGION WAS NUMBERED TODAY AS
REGION 8190 (S20E66).
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY SHOULD BE VERY LOW TO
LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD. REGION 8185 STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR
PRODUCING AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 28/2100Z TO 29/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET TO ACTIVE. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV
ELECTRON FLUX AT GEOSYNCHRONOUS ALTITUDE WAS HIGH.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD SHOULD BE
PRIMARILY QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS WITH PERIODS OF
ACTIVE CONDITIONS AT ALL LATITUDES.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           29 MAR 100
PREDICTED   30 MAR-01 APR  100/098/098
90 DAY MEAN        29 MAR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 28 MAR  010/014
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 29 MAR  015/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 30 MAR-01 APR  015/015-015/012-010/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 30 MAR-01 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/25/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/20
MINOR STORM           20/20/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05