:Product: 19980330RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Mar 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 089 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 30 MAR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  29/2100Z
TO 30/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S LARGEST X-RAY EVENT WAS
A C1 AT 1952Z; THERE WERE NO CORRESPONDING OPTICAL SIGNATURES. A
SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE NORTHERN POLAR CROWN FILAMENT (NEAR
N31W43) DISAPPEARED BETWEEN 1235-1503Z. REGION 8185 (S25W39) IS THE
DOMINANT REGION ON THE DISK IN TERMS OF SUNSPOT AREA AND MAGNETIC
COMPLEXITY. NONETHELESS THE REGION WAS QUIET AND STABLE DURING THE
PAST 24 HOURS.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW,
BUT THERE IS A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8185.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 29/2100Z TO 30/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS PREDOMINANTLY QUIET TO UNSETTLED. SOME
MINOR SUBSTORM ACTIVITY WAS NOTED AT HIGH LATITUDES BETWEEN
1400-1700Z. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRONS WERE AT HIGH FLUX
LEVELS DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE UNSETTLED WITH OCCASIONAL ACTIVE PERIODS OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS. THE PROBABILITY FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY IS SOMEWHAT
HIGHER THAN USUAL DUE TO THE LONG DURATION M2 ON THE 27TH AND THE
FILAMENT ERUPTION ON THE 29TH. THERE IS EVIDENCE FROM LASCO THAT THE
FILAMENT ERUPTION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH A CORONAL MASS EJECTION.
GEOMAGNETIC CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO QUIET TO UNSETTLED
ON THE THIRD DAY.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 31 MAR-02 APR
CLASS M    20/20/20
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           30 MAR 108
PREDICTED   31 MAR-02 APR  102/100/098
90 DAY MEAN        30 MAR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 29 MAR  010/017
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 30 MAR  014/015
PREDICTED AFR/AP 31 MAR-02 APR  015/012-015/010-010/005
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 31 MAR-02 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                35/35/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                40/40/25
MINOR STORM           20/20/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    10/10/05