:Product: 19980401RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 091 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 01 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  31/2100Z
TO 01/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. REGION 8190 (S21E25) CONTINUED
TO GROW STEADILY TODAY AND PRODUCED THREE C-CLASS FLARES; THE
LARGEST WAS A C2/SF AT 0923Z. THE MAIN INVERSION LINE OF THE REGION
IS ORIENTED IN A NORTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. REGION
8185 (S25W64) PRODUCED A C1/SF AT 1358Z BUT WAS OTHERWISE QUIET.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE, HOWEVER, FOR AN ISOLATED M-CLASS EVENT
FROM REGION 8190.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 31/2100Z TO 01/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS MOSTLY QUIET DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. HIGH
LATITUDES EXPERIENCED MINOR SUBSTORM ACTIVITY FROM 0300-1000UT. THE
GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON FLUXES CONTINUE TO BE AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A POSSIBLILITY FOR ENHANCED ACTIVITY IN RESPONSE TO
SUNDAY'S FILAMENT ERUPTION. UNSETTLED TO QUIET LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL ON THE SECOND AND THIRD DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 02 APR-04 APR
CLASS M    25/25/20
CLASS X    05/05/01
PROTON     05/05/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           01 APR 106
PREDICTED   02 APR-04 APR  105/100/098
90 DAY MEAN        01 APR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 31 MAR  007/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 01 APR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 02 APR-04 APR  015/012-010/010-007/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 02 APR-04 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                25/15/10
MINOR STORM           10/10/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    05/05/05