:Product: 19980402RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 092 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 02 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  01/2100Z
TO 02/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS LOW. TODAY'S ACTIVITY CONSISTED OF
OCCASIONAL C-CLASS FLARES; THE LARGEST WAS A C2/SF FROM REGION 8190
(S19E10). THIS GROUP IS NO LONGER GROWING RAPIDLY, BUT THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A SMALL DELTA CONFIGURATION NEAR THE CENTER OF THE
REGION ASSOCIATED WITH RELATIVELY BRIGHT LOOPS IN THE CORONA. NEW
REGION NUMBER 8192 (S30W55) WAS ASSIGNED AND IS A SIMPLE A-TYPE
GROUP.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW.
THERE CONTINUES, HOWEVER, TO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED
M-CLASS EVENT.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 01/2100Z TO 02/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES FOR THE PAST 24
HOURS. THE GREATER THAN  2 MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
CLASS M    20/20/15
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           02 APR 103
PREDICTED   03 APR-05 APR  100/098/105
90 DAY MEAN        02 APR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 01 APR  002/005
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 02 APR  002/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 03 APR-05 APR  005/008-005/008-005/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 03 APR-05 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                05/10/10
MINOR STORM           05/05/05
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/05/05