:Product: 19980403RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 093 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 03 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  02/2100Z
TO 03/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY WAS VERY LOW. REGION 8190 (S20W02)
PRODUCED ISOLATED B-CLASS SUBFLARES AND APPEARED TO STABILIZE AS A
SMALL E-TYPE GROUP. THE REMAINING REGIONS WERE STABLE AS WELL. NO
NEW REGIONS WERE ASSIGNED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH A INCREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE INCREASE IS FORECAST
BASED UPON THE EXPECTED RETURN OF HISTORICALLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES
(OLD REGION 8179).
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 02/2100Z TO 03/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX WAS AT MODERATE TO HIGH LEVELS.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2 MEV ELECTRON
FLUX IS EXPECTED TO DECLINE TO NORMAL TO MODERATE LEVELS EARLY IN
THE PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
CLASS M    10/15/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           03 APR 104
PREDICTED   04 APR-06 APR  106/110/114
90 DAY MEAN        03 APR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 02 APR  001/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 03 APR  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 04 APR-06 APR  005/008-005/008-010/015
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 04 APR-06 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/15
MINOR STORM           05/05/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/10/20
MINOR STORM           05/05/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/05