:Product: 19980404RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 04 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 094 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 04 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  03/2100Z
TO 04/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS. REGION 8190
(S20W03) PRODUCED A C6/SF FLARE AT 03/2335UT, BUT WAS GENERALLY
STABLE IN SIZE AND SPOT COUNT. A LONG-DURATION C6 X-RAY BURST (LDE)
OCCURRED AT 04/0757UT WITH NO OPTICAL ASSOCIATION. THE LDE MAY BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE RETURN OF OLD REGION 8179, WHICH PRODUCED
MODERATE ACTIVITY DURING ITS LAST PASSAGE. EXTREMELY INTENSE CORONAL
EMISSIONS PRESAGED THE RETURN OF REGION 8179 AND AT ISSUE TIME A
SINGLE SPOT WITH MATURE PENUMBRA WAS SEEN ROTATING INTO VIEW. NEW
REGION 8193 (S22E42) WAS NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW
WITH AN INCREASING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR M-CLASS
FLARE ACTIVITY INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS WELL, GIVEN THE RETURN
OF OLD REGION 8179.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 03/2100Z TO 04/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET TO UNSETTLED. THE GREATER THAN 2
MEV ELECTRON FLUX DECLINED TO NORMAL LEVELS EARLY IN THE PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS FOR THE DURATION OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 05 APR-07 APR
CLASS M    15/20/20
CLASS X    01/01/01
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           04 APR 110
PREDICTED   05 APR-07 APR  114/118/122
90 DAY MEAN        04 APR 099
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 03 APR  005/006
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 04 APR  008/008
PREDICTED AFR/AP 05 APR-07 APR  005/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 05 APR-07 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/20/20
MINOR STORM           05/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01