:Product: 19980405RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 095 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 05 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  04/2100Z
TO 05/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY INCREASED TO MODERATE LEVELS. NEWLY
NUMBERED REGION 8194 (S18E71) PRODUCED AN M1/SF FLARE AT 05/1639UT
AS IT CONTINUED TO ROTATE INTO VIEW. MINOR CENTIMETRIC RADIO BURSTS
WERE DETECTED DURING THE FLARE. NEW REGION 8195 (S26E75) ALSO
ROTATED INTO VIEW, TO THE SOUTHEAST OF REGION 8194. LIMB PROXIMITY
PREVENTED A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THESE REGIONS, WHICH ARE SITUATED
WITHIN A BAND OF HISTORICALLY ACTIVE LONGITUDES. BOTH REGIONS ARE
LIKELY PART OF AN EMERGING REGION COMPLEX. REGION 8193 (S22E28)
DISPLAYED MODERATE GROWTH AND PRODUCED A SINGLE C-CLASS SUBFLARE.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE
MODERATE. M-CLASS FLARES ARE EXPECTED FROM REGION 8194. THERE IS
ALSO A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS REGION.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 04/2100Z TO 05/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD WAS QUIET AT ALL LATITUDES DURING MOST OF THE
PERIOD.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    05/05/05
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           05 APR 126
PREDICTED   06 APR-08 APR  130/134/136
90 DAY MEAN        05 APR 100
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 04 APR  008/010
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 05 APR  005/005
PREDICTED AFR/AP 06 APR-08 APR  007/010-008/010-008/010
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 06 APR-08 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                10/15/15
MINOR STORM           05/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    02/02/02
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/20/20
MINOR STORM           10/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01