:Product: 19980406RSGA.txt
:Issued: 1998 Apr 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
JOINT USAF/NOAA REPORT OF SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY
SDF NUMBER 096 ISSUED AT 2200Z ON 06 APR 1998
IA.  ANALYSIS OF SOLAR ACTIVE REGIONS AND ACTIVITY FROM  05/2100Z
TO 06/2100Z:  SOLAR ACTIVITY CONTINUED AT MODERATE LEVELS. REGION
8195 (S26E75) PRODUCED AN M1/2F FLARE AT 06/1648UT. REGION 8194
(S18E60) PRODUCED A COUPLE SUBFLARES DURING THE PERIOD. LIMB
PROXIMITY PREVENTED A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF THESE TWO REGIONS. BOTH
REGIONS APPEAR TO SHARE A COMMON NEUTRAL LINE. A WEAK TYPE II SWEEP
OCCURRED AT 06/0455UT, BUT HAD NO OPTICAL CORRELATION. REGION 8193
(S22E14) CONTINUED TO DISPLAY GRADUAL GROWTH IN AREA AND SPOT COUNT,
BUT PRODUCED NO FLARES. NO NEW REGIONS WERE NUMBERED.
IB.  SOLAR ACTIVITY FORECAST:  SOLAR ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
AT MODERATE LEVELS. M-CLASS FLARES ARE POSSIBLE FROM THE 8194/8195
REGION COMPLEX. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A MAJOR FLARE FROM THIS
AREA AS WELL.
IIA.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY SUMMARY FROM 05/2100Z TO 06/2100Z:
THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD HAS BEEN QUIET.
IIB.  GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECAST:  THE GEOMAGNETIC FIELD IS
EXPECTED TO BE AT QUIET TO UNSETTLED LEVELS.
III.  EVENT PROBABILITIES 07 APR-09 APR
CLASS M    60/60/60
CLASS X    10/10/10
PROTON     01/01/01
PCAF       GREEN
IV.  PENTICTON 10.7 CM FLUX
OBSERVED           06 APR 133
PREDICTED   07 APR-09 APR  136/138/140
90 DAY MEAN        06 APR 100
V.  GEOMAGNETIC A INDICES
OBSERVED AFR/AP 05 APR  003/004
ESTIMATED AFR/AP 06 APR  006/006
PREDICTED AFR/AP 07 APR-09 APR  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY PROBABILITIES 07 APR-09 APR
A.  MIDDLE LATITUDES
ACTIVE                15/15/15
MINOR STORM           10/10/10
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01
B.  HIGH LATITUDES
ACTIVE                20/20/20
MINOR STORM           15/15/15
MAJOR-SEVERE STORM    01/01/01